Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has moved from the edge of federal politics to the centre of the national conversation. Multiple polls during 2026 have put the party above 20 per cent, with some surveys placing it level with or ahead of a major party.
ABC analysis of polling and survey data found the fastest rise in One Nation’s modern history. The clearest shift has come from voters who previously supported the Coalition, although some Labor voters have moved as well.
Why voters are moving
Researchers point to several overlapping forces: cost-of-living pressure, lower trust in established political institutions, weaker long-term loyalty to major parties and strong concern about immigration and border control among One Nation supporters. Social media visibility has also helped the party reach voters who do not closely follow traditional political reporting.
That does not mean every supporter shares the same reason or policy view. A large Australian National University survey found One Nation strongly polarises opinion: many respondents rated it highly, while many others strongly disliked it.
Polling is a snapshot, not a prediction. Survey methods differ, support can move quickly and a national percentage does not automatically convert into seats. Candidate quality, preferences and the geographic concentration of votes will determine the electoral result.